Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda

The absence of a viable flood early warning system for the Sebeya River catchment continues to impede government efforts towards improving community preparedness, the reduction of flood impacts and relief. This paper reports on a recent study that used satellite data, quantitative precipitation fore...

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Autores principales:	Mukakarangwa Assoumpta, Daniel Aja
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	ecmwf rainfall forecast flood early warning gpm hbv model sebeya river catchment River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fc6d8a58e36440c99a51fd1d72a834f6
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:fc6d8a58e36440c99a51fd1d72a834f6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fc6d8a58e36440c99a51fd1d72a834f62021-11-08T07:59:45ZFlood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda2616-651810.2166/h2oj.2021.094https://doaj.org/article/fc6d8a58e36440c99a51fd1d72a834f62021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://doi.org/10.2166/h2oj.2021.094https://doaj.org/toc/2616-6518The absence of a viable flood early warning system for the Sebeya River catchment continues to impede government efforts towards improving community preparedness, the reduction of flood impacts and relief. This paper reports on a recent study that used satellite data, quantitative precipitation forecasts and the rainfall–runoff model for short-term flood forecasting in the Sebeya catchment. The global precipitation measurement product was used as a satellite rainfall product for model calibration and validation and forecasted European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall products were evaluated to forecast flood. Model performance was evaluated by the visual examination of simulated hydrographs, observed hydrographs and a number of performance indicators. The real-time flow forecast assessment was conducted with respect to three different flood warning threshold levels for a 3–24-h lead time. The result for a 3-h lead time showed 72% of hits, 7.5% of false alarms and 9.5% of missed forecasts. The number of hits decreased, as the lead time increased. This study did not consider the uncertainties in observed data, and this can influence the model performance. This work provides a base for future studies to establish a viable flood early warning system in the study area and beyond. HIGHLIGHTS Potential of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model for flood forecasting in the Sebeya catchment.; Evaluation of European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall data.; Graphical evaluation of flood forecasts based on the ECMWF.; Categorical statistics indicated that the probability of detection was high for a short lead time, showing that a short lead-time forecast gives a higher skill score than forecasts for a longer lead time.;Mukakarangwa AssoumptaDaniel AjaIWA Publishingarticleecmwf rainfall forecastflood early warninggpmhbv modelsebeya river catchmentRiver, lake, and water-supply engineering (General)TC401-506Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500ENH2Open Journal, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 182-203 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	ecmwf rainfall forecast flood early warning gpm hbv model sebeya river catchment River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
spellingShingle	ecmwf rainfall forecast flood early warning gpm hbv model sebeya river catchment River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Mukakarangwa Assoumpta Daniel Aja Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda
description	The absence of a viable flood early warning system for the Sebeya River catchment continues to impede government efforts towards improving community preparedness, the reduction of flood impacts and relief. This paper reports on a recent study that used satellite data, quantitative precipitation forecasts and the rainfall–runoff model for short-term flood forecasting in the Sebeya catchment. The global precipitation measurement product was used as a satellite rainfall product for model calibration and validation and forecasted European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall products were evaluated to forecast flood. Model performance was evaluated by the visual examination of simulated hydrographs, observed hydrographs and a number of performance indicators. The real-time flow forecast assessment was conducted with respect to three different flood warning threshold levels for a 3–24-h lead time. The result for a 3-h lead time showed 72% of hits, 7.5% of false alarms and 9.5% of missed forecasts. The number of hits decreased, as the lead time increased. This study did not consider the uncertainties in observed data, and this can influence the model performance. This work provides a base for future studies to establish a viable flood early warning system in the study area and beyond. HIGHLIGHTS Potential of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model for flood forecasting in the Sebeya catchment.; Evaluation of European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall data.; Graphical evaluation of flood forecasts based on the ECMWF.; Categorical statistics indicated that the probability of detection was high for a short lead time, showing that a short lead-time forecast gives a higher skill score than forecasts for a longer lead time.;
format	article
author	Mukakarangwa Assoumpta Daniel Aja
author_facet	Mukakarangwa Assoumpta Daniel Aja
author_sort	Mukakarangwa Assoumpta
title	Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda
title_short	Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda
title_full	Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda
title_fullStr	Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda
title_full_unstemmed	Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda
title_sort	flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the sebeya catchment, rwanda
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fc6d8a58e36440c99a51fd1d72a834f6
work_keys_str_mv	AT mukakarangwaassoumpta floodforecastingusingquantitativeprecipitationforecastsandhydrologicalmodelinginthesebeyacatchmentrwanda AT danielaja floodforecastingusingquantitativeprecipitationforecastsandhydrologicalmodelinginthesebeyacatchmentrwanda
_version_	1718442871311302656

Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda

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