Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.

A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in e...

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Autores principales:	Samir Suweis, Paolo D'Odorico
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fc7e698ac814429eb0ab43dfca16cc54
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:fc7e698ac814429eb0ab43dfca16cc54
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fc7e698ac814429eb0ab43dfca16cc542021-11-25T06:08:43ZEarly warning signs in social-ecological networks.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0101851https://doaj.org/article/fc7e698ac814429eb0ab43dfca16cc542014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/25013901/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance--measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network--is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.Samir SuweisPaolo D'OdoricoPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 7, p e101851 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Samir Suweis Paolo D'Odorico Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.
description	A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance--measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network--is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.
format	article
author	Samir Suweis Paolo D'Odorico
author_facet	Samir Suweis Paolo D'Odorico
author_sort	Samir Suweis
title	Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.
title_short	Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.
title_full	Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.
title_fullStr	Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.
title_full_unstemmed	Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.
title_sort	early warning signs in social-ecological networks.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/fc7e698ac814429eb0ab43dfca16cc54
work_keys_str_mv	AT samirsuweis earlywarningsignsinsocialecologicalnetworks AT paolododorico earlywarningsignsinsocialecologicalnetworks
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Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.

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