Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown

Abstract Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far fro...

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Autores principales:	I. Neri, L. Gammaitoni
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fcb31e1d8cc04e11b9a24045d479df6c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fcb31e1d8cc04e11b9a24045d479df6c2021-12-02T11:39:20ZRole of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown10.1038/s41598-021-85808-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/fcb31e1d8cc04e11b9a24045d479df6c2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85808-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours. The results found in this work are not only relevant and specific for the Covid-19 epidemic but are more general and can be applied to other epidemics.I. NeriL. GammaitoniNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-6 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q I. Neri L. Gammaitoni Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
description	Abstract Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours. The results found in this work are not only relevant and specific for the Covid-19 epidemic but are more general and can be applied to other epidemics.
format	article
author	I. Neri L. Gammaitoni
author_facet	I. Neri L. Gammaitoni
author_sort	I. Neri
title	Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_short	Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_full	Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_fullStr	Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_full_unstemmed	Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
title_sort	role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fcb31e1d8cc04e11b9a24045d479df6c
work_keys_str_mv	AT ineri roleoffluctuationsinepidemicresurgenceafteralockdown AT lgammaitoni roleoffluctuationsinepidemicresurgenceafteralockdown
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Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown

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