Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China

Climate change has dramatic impacts on the growth and the geographical distribution of tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.). Assessing the potential distribution of tea will help decision makers to formulate appropriate adaptation measures to use the altered climatic resources and avoid the...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Yuncheng Zhao, Mingyue Zhao, Lei Zhang, Chunyi Wang, Yinlong Xu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	climate change SSPS climate suitable habitats MaxEnt tea China Agriculture (General) S1-972
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fcea0bb172b04156a8b74958337ac884
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:fcea0bb172b04156a8b74958337ac884
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fcea0bb172b04156a8b74958337ac8842021-11-25T15:59:33ZPredicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China10.3390/agriculture111111222077-0472https://doaj.org/article/fcea0bb172b04156a8b74958337ac8842021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/11/1122https://doaj.org/toc/2077-0472Climate change has dramatic impacts on the growth and the geographical distribution of tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.). Assessing the potential distribution of tea will help decision makers to formulate appropriate adaptation measures to use the altered climatic resources and avoid the damage from climate hazards. The objective in this study is to model the current and future distribution of tea species based on the four SSPs scenarios using the MaxEnt model in China. For the modeling procedure, tea growth records in 410 sites and 9 climate variables were used in this paper. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the model. The AUC value was over 0.9 in this study, showing the excellent simulation result of the model. In relation to the current distribution, areas of 82.01 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> (8.51% of total land area in China), 115.97 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> (12.03% of total land area in China), and 67.14 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> (6.97% of total land area in China) were recognized as Marginal, Medium, and Optimal climate suitable habitats for tea over China. Compared to the current distribution, most of the Optimal suitability areas in southeast China would be lost in four scenarios. The area of Marginal and Medium suitable habitats would expand in SSP370 and SSP585, especially in 2041–2061 and 2081–2100. The suitable area of tea would expand northwards and westwards, suggesting that additional new suitable habitats could be created for tea production with the future climate change, especially in Shandong, Henan, Guizhou, and Yunnan Provinces. This research would provide vital scientific understanding for policy making on tea production, tea garden site chosen and adopyion of adaptation methods in the future.Yuncheng ZhaoMingyue ZhaoLei ZhangChunyi WangYinlong XuMDPI AGarticleclimate changeSSPSclimate suitable habitatsMaxEntteaChinaAgriculture (General)S1-972ENAgriculture, Vol 11, Iss 1122, p 1122 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change SSPS climate suitable habitats MaxEnt tea China Agriculture (General) S1-972
spellingShingle	climate change SSPS climate suitable habitats MaxEnt tea China Agriculture (General) S1-972 Yuncheng Zhao Mingyue Zhao Lei Zhang Chunyi Wang Yinlong Xu Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China
description	Climate change has dramatic impacts on the growth and the geographical distribution of tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.). Assessing the potential distribution of tea will help decision makers to formulate appropriate adaptation measures to use the altered climatic resources and avoid the damage from climate hazards. The objective in this study is to model the current and future distribution of tea species based on the four SSPs scenarios using the MaxEnt model in China. For the modeling procedure, tea growth records in 410 sites and 9 climate variables were used in this paper. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the model. The AUC value was over 0.9 in this study, showing the excellent simulation result of the model. In relation to the current distribution, areas of 82.01 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> (8.51% of total land area in China), 115.97 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> (12.03% of total land area in China), and 67.14 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> (6.97% of total land area in China) were recognized as Marginal, Medium, and Optimal climate suitable habitats for tea over China. Compared to the current distribution, most of the Optimal suitability areas in southeast China would be lost in four scenarios. The area of Marginal and Medium suitable habitats would expand in SSP370 and SSP585, especially in 2041–2061 and 2081–2100. The suitable area of tea would expand northwards and westwards, suggesting that additional new suitable habitats could be created for tea production with the future climate change, especially in Shandong, Henan, Guizhou, and Yunnan Provinces. This research would provide vital scientific understanding for policy making on tea production, tea garden site chosen and adopyion of adaptation methods in the future.
format	article
author	Yuncheng Zhao Mingyue Zhao Lei Zhang Chunyi Wang Yinlong Xu
author_facet	Yuncheng Zhao Mingyue Zhao Lei Zhang Chunyi Wang Yinlong Xu
author_sort	Yuncheng Zhao
title	Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China
title_short	Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China
title_full	Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China
title_fullStr	Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China
title_sort	predicting possible distribution of tea (<i>camellia sinensis</i> l.) under climate change scenarios using maxent model in china
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fcea0bb172b04156a8b74958337ac884
work_keys_str_mv	AT yunchengzhao predictingpossibledistributionofteaicamelliasinensisilunderclimatechangescenariosusingmaxentmodelinchina AT mingyuezhao predictingpossibledistributionofteaicamelliasinensisilunderclimatechangescenariosusingmaxentmodelinchina AT leizhang predictingpossibledistributionofteaicamelliasinensisilunderclimatechangescenariosusingmaxentmodelinchina AT chunyiwang predictingpossibledistributionofteaicamelliasinensisilunderclimatechangescenariosusingmaxentmodelinchina AT yinlongxu predictingpossibledistributionofteaicamelliasinensisilunderclimatechangescenariosusingmaxentmodelinchina
_version_	1718413416826142720

Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (<i>Camellia sinensis</i> L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China

Ejemplares similares