Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.

Recently it has been show that in some ecosystems fast rates of change of environmental drivers may trigger a critical transition, whereas change of the same magnitude but at slower rates would not. So far, few studies describe this phenomenon of rate-induced tipping, while it is important to unders...

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Autores principales:	Bregje van der Bolt, Egbert H van Nes
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fd8e6f040a094f17bffce95ccfd763e3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fd8e6f040a094f17bffce95ccfd763e32021-12-02T20:07:05ZUnderstanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0253003https://doaj.org/article/fd8e6f040a094f17bffce95ccfd763e32021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253003https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Recently it has been show that in some ecosystems fast rates of change of environmental drivers may trigger a critical transition, whereas change of the same magnitude but at slower rates would not. So far, few studies describe this phenomenon of rate-induced tipping, while it is important to understand this phenomenon in the light of the ongoing rapid environmental change. Here, we demonstrate rate-induced tipping in a simple model of cyanobacteria with realistic parameter settings. We explain graphically that there is a range of initial conditions at which a gradual increase in environmental conditions can cause a collapse of the population, but only if the change is fast enough. In addition, we show that a pulse in the environmental conditions can cause a temporary collapse, but that is dependent on both the rate and the duration of the pulse. Furthermore, we study whether the autocorrelation of stochastic environmental conditions can influence the probability of inducing rate-tipping. As both the rate of environmental change, and autocorrelation of the environmental variability are increasing in parts of the climate, the probability for rate-induced tipping to occur is likely to increase. Our results imply that, even though the identification of rate sensitive ecosystems in the real world will be challenging, we should incorporate critical rates of change in our ecosystem assessments and management.Bregje van der BoltEgbert H van NesPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0253003 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Bregje van der Bolt Egbert H van Nes Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.
description	Recently it has been show that in some ecosystems fast rates of change of environmental drivers may trigger a critical transition, whereas change of the same magnitude but at slower rates would not. So far, few studies describe this phenomenon of rate-induced tipping, while it is important to understand this phenomenon in the light of the ongoing rapid environmental change. Here, we demonstrate rate-induced tipping in a simple model of cyanobacteria with realistic parameter settings. We explain graphically that there is a range of initial conditions at which a gradual increase in environmental conditions can cause a collapse of the population, but only if the change is fast enough. In addition, we show that a pulse in the environmental conditions can cause a temporary collapse, but that is dependent on both the rate and the duration of the pulse. Furthermore, we study whether the autocorrelation of stochastic environmental conditions can influence the probability of inducing rate-tipping. As both the rate of environmental change, and autocorrelation of the environmental variability are increasing in parts of the climate, the probability for rate-induced tipping to occur is likely to increase. Our results imply that, even though the identification of rate sensitive ecosystems in the real world will be challenging, we should incorporate critical rates of change in our ecosystem assessments and management.
format	article
author	Bregje van der Bolt Egbert H van Nes
author_facet	Bregje van der Bolt Egbert H van Nes
author_sort	Bregje van der Bolt
title	Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.
title_short	Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.
title_full	Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.
title_fullStr	Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.
title_full_unstemmed	Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.
title_sort	understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fd8e6f040a094f17bffce95ccfd763e3
work_keys_str_mv	AT bregjevanderbolt understandingthecriticalrateofenvironmentalchangeforecosystemscyanobacteriaasanexample AT egberthvannes understandingthecriticalrateofenvironmentalchangeforecosystemscyanobacteriaasanexample
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Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example.

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