Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems

Abstract Anticipating critical transitions in complex ecological and living systems is an important need because it is often difficult to restore a system to its pre-transition state once the transition occurs. Recent studies demonstrate that several indicators based on changes in ecological time se...

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Autores principales:	Amin Ghadami, Eleni Gourgou, Bogdan I. Epureanu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2018
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fe3fe71922cd462f937ef58e9e3f923c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fe3fe71922cd462f937ef58e9e3f923c2021-12-02T15:08:53ZRate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems10.1038/s41598-018-27573-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/fe3fe71922cd462f937ef58e9e3f923c2018-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27573-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Anticipating critical transitions in complex ecological and living systems is an important need because it is often difficult to restore a system to its pre-transition state once the transition occurs. Recent studies demonstrate that several indicators based on changes in ecological time series can indicate that the system is approaching an impending transition. An exciting question is, however, whether we can predict more characteristics of the future system stability using measurements taken away from the transition. We address this question by introducing a model-less forecasting method to forecast catastrophic transition of an experimental ecological system. The experiment is based on the dynamics of a yeast population, which is known to exhibit a catastrophic transition as the environment deteriorates. By measuring the system’s response to perturbations prior to transition, we forecast the distance to the upcoming transition, the type of the transition (i.e., catastrophic/non-catastrophic) and the future equilibrium points within a range near the transition. Experimental results suggest a strong potential for practical applicability of this approach for ecological systems which are at risk of catastrophic transitions, where there is a pressing need for information about upcoming thresholds.Amin GhadamiEleni GourgouBogdan I. EpureanuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Amin Ghadami Eleni Gourgou Bogdan I. Epureanu Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems
description	Abstract Anticipating critical transitions in complex ecological and living systems is an important need because it is often difficult to restore a system to its pre-transition state once the transition occurs. Recent studies demonstrate that several indicators based on changes in ecological time series can indicate that the system is approaching an impending transition. An exciting question is, however, whether we can predict more characteristics of the future system stability using measurements taken away from the transition. We address this question by introducing a model-less forecasting method to forecast catastrophic transition of an experimental ecological system. The experiment is based on the dynamics of a yeast population, which is known to exhibit a catastrophic transition as the environment deteriorates. By measuring the system’s response to perturbations prior to transition, we forecast the distance to the upcoming transition, the type of the transition (i.e., catastrophic/non-catastrophic) and the future equilibrium points within a range near the transition. Experimental results suggest a strong potential for practical applicability of this approach for ecological systems which are at risk of catastrophic transitions, where there is a pressing need for information about upcoming thresholds.
format	article
author	Amin Ghadami Eleni Gourgou Bogdan I. Epureanu
author_facet	Amin Ghadami Eleni Gourgou Bogdan I. Epureanu
author_sort	Amin Ghadami
title	Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems
title_short	Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems
title_full	Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems
title_fullStr	Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems
title_full_unstemmed	Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems
title_sort	rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/fe3fe71922cd462f937ef58e9e3f923c
work_keys_str_mv	AT aminghadami rateofrecoveryfromperturbationsasameanstoforecastfuturestabilityoflivingsystems AT elenigourgou rateofrecoveryfromperturbationsasameanstoforecastfuturestabilityoflivingsystems AT bogdaniepureanu rateofrecoveryfromperturbationsasameanstoforecastfuturestabilityoflivingsystems
_version_	1718388038927646720

Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems

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