An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas

Abstract In 2017, 46,157 and 3,127 new oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) cases were reported in the U.S. and Texas, respectively. About 70% of OPC were attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV). However, only 51% of U.S. and 43.5% of Texas adolescents have completed the HPV vaccine series. Therefore, modeli...

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Autores principales:	Chengxue Zhong, Li Xu, Ho-Lan Peng, Samantha Tam, Kristina R. Dahlstrom, Chi-Fang Wu, Shuangshuang Fu, Wenyaw Chan, Erich M. Sturgis, Lois M. Ramondetta, Libin Rong, David R. Lairson, Hongyu Miao
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fe434b42aec24e479eb1d47ba1fcbaa3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fe434b42aec24e479eb1d47ba1fcbaa32021-12-02T10:49:15ZAn economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas10.1038/s41598-021-81375-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/fe434b42aec24e479eb1d47ba1fcbaa32021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81375-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract In 2017, 46,157 and 3,127 new oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) cases were reported in the U.S. and Texas, respectively. About 70% of OPC were attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV). However, only 51% of U.S. and 43.5% of Texas adolescents have completed the HPV vaccine series. Therefore, modeling the demographic dynamics and transmission of HPV and OPC progression is needed for accurate estimation of the economic and epidemiological impacts of HPV vaccine in a geographic area. An age-structured population dynamic model was developed for the U.S. state of Texas. With Texas-specific model parameters calibrated, this model described the dynamics of HPV-associated OPC in Texas. Parameters for the Year 2010 were used as the initial values, and the prediction for Year 2012 was compared with the real age-specific incidence rates in 23 age groups for model validation. The validated model was applied to predict 100-year age-adjusted incidence rates. The public health benefits of HPV vaccine uptake were evaluated by computer simulation. Compared with current vaccination program, increasing vaccine uptake rates by 50% would decrease the cumulative cases by 4403, within 100 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this strategy was $94,518 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Increasing the vaccine uptake rate by 50% can: (i) reduce the incidence rates of OPC among both males and females; (ii) improve the quality-adjusted life years for both males and females; (iii) be cost-effective and has the potential to provide tremendous public health benefits in Texas.Chengxue ZhongLi XuHo-Lan PengSamantha TamLi XuKristina R. DahlstromChi-Fang WuShuangshuang FuWenyaw ChanErich M. SturgisLois M. RamondettaLibin RongDavid R. LairsonHongyu MiaoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Chengxue Zhong Li Xu Ho-Lan Peng Samantha Tam Li Xu Kristina R. Dahlstrom Chi-Fang Wu Shuangshuang Fu Wenyaw Chan Erich M. Sturgis Lois M. Ramondetta Libin Rong David R. Lairson Hongyu Miao An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas
description	Abstract In 2017, 46,157 and 3,127 new oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) cases were reported in the U.S. and Texas, respectively. About 70% of OPC were attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV). However, only 51% of U.S. and 43.5% of Texas adolescents have completed the HPV vaccine series. Therefore, modeling the demographic dynamics and transmission of HPV and OPC progression is needed for accurate estimation of the economic and epidemiological impacts of HPV vaccine in a geographic area. An age-structured population dynamic model was developed for the U.S. state of Texas. With Texas-specific model parameters calibrated, this model described the dynamics of HPV-associated OPC in Texas. Parameters for the Year 2010 were used as the initial values, and the prediction for Year 2012 was compared with the real age-specific incidence rates in 23 age groups for model validation. The validated model was applied to predict 100-year age-adjusted incidence rates. The public health benefits of HPV vaccine uptake were evaluated by computer simulation. Compared with current vaccination program, increasing vaccine uptake rates by 50% would decrease the cumulative cases by 4403, within 100 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this strategy was $94,518 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Increasing the vaccine uptake rate by 50% can: (i) reduce the incidence rates of OPC among both males and females; (ii) improve the quality-adjusted life years for both males and females; (iii) be cost-effective and has the potential to provide tremendous public health benefits in Texas.
format	article
author	Chengxue Zhong Li Xu Ho-Lan Peng Samantha Tam Li Xu Kristina R. Dahlstrom Chi-Fang Wu Shuangshuang Fu Wenyaw Chan Erich M. Sturgis Lois M. Ramondetta Libin Rong David R. Lairson Hongyu Miao
author_facet	Chengxue Zhong Li Xu Ho-Lan Peng Samantha Tam Li Xu Kristina R. Dahlstrom Chi-Fang Wu Shuangshuang Fu Wenyaw Chan Erich M. Sturgis Lois M. Ramondetta Libin Rong David R. Lairson Hongyu Miao
author_sort	Chengxue Zhong
title	An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas
title_short	An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas
title_full	An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas
title_fullStr	An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas
title_full_unstemmed	An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas
title_sort	economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in texas
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fe434b42aec24e479eb1d47ba1fcbaa3
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An economic and disease transmission model of human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal cancer in Texas

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