Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa

Abstract Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the associatio...

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Autores principales:	Takayoshi Ikeda, Swadhin K. Behera, Yushi Morioka, Noboru Minakawa, Masahiro Hashizume, Ataru Tsuzuki, Rajendra Maharaj, Philip Kruger
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fe684143cc6f409ab7108dbae9d8586c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fe684143cc6f409ab7108dbae9d8586c2021-12-02T16:08:20ZSeasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa10.1038/s41598-017-02680-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/fe684143cc6f409ab7108dbae9d8586c2017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02680-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the association between malaria incidence and spatio-temporal climate variations in Limpopo. First, dominant spatial patterns in malaria incidence anomalies were identified using self-organizing maps. Composite analysis found significant associations among incidence anomalies and climate patterns. A high incidence of malaria during the pre-peak season (Sep-Nov) was associated with the climate phenomenon La Niña and cool air temperatures over southern Africa. There was also high precipitation over neighbouring countries two to six months prior to malaria incidence. During the peak season (Dec-Feb), high incidence was associated with positive phase of Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole. Warm temperatures and high precipitation in neighbouring countries were also observed two months prior to increased malaria incidence. This lagged association between regional climate and malaria incidence suggests that in areas at high risk for malaria, such as Limpopo, management plans should consider not only local climate patterns but those of neighbouring countries as well. These findings highlight the need to strengthen cross-border control of malaria to minimize its spread.Takayoshi IkedaSwadhin K. BeheraYushi MoriokaNoboru MinakawaMasahiro HashizumeAtaru TsuzukiRajendra MaharajPhilip KrugerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Takayoshi Ikeda Swadhin K. Behera Yushi Morioka Noboru Minakawa Masahiro Hashizume Ataru Tsuzuki Rajendra Maharaj Philip Kruger Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa
description	Abstract Globally, malaria cases have drastically dropped in recent years. However, a high incidence of malaria remains in some sub-Saharan African countries. South Africa is mostly malaria-free, but northeastern provinces continue to experience seasonal outbreaks. Here we investigate the association between malaria incidence and spatio-temporal climate variations in Limpopo. First, dominant spatial patterns in malaria incidence anomalies were identified using self-organizing maps. Composite analysis found significant associations among incidence anomalies and climate patterns. A high incidence of malaria during the pre-peak season (Sep-Nov) was associated with the climate phenomenon La Niña and cool air temperatures over southern Africa. There was also high precipitation over neighbouring countries two to six months prior to malaria incidence. During the peak season (Dec-Feb), high incidence was associated with positive phase of Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole. Warm temperatures and high precipitation in neighbouring countries were also observed two months prior to increased malaria incidence. This lagged association between regional climate and malaria incidence suggests that in areas at high risk for malaria, such as Limpopo, management plans should consider not only local climate patterns but those of neighbouring countries as well. These findings highlight the need to strengthen cross-border control of malaria to minimize its spread.
format	article
author	Takayoshi Ikeda Swadhin K. Behera Yushi Morioka Noboru Minakawa Masahiro Hashizume Ataru Tsuzuki Rajendra Maharaj Philip Kruger
author_facet	Takayoshi Ikeda Swadhin K. Behera Yushi Morioka Noboru Minakawa Masahiro Hashizume Ataru Tsuzuki Rajendra Maharaj Philip Kruger
author_sort	Takayoshi Ikeda
title	Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa
title_short	Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa
title_full	Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa
title_fullStr	Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa
title_full_unstemmed	Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa
title_sort	seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in south africa
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/fe684143cc6f409ab7108dbae9d8586c
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Seasonally lagged effects of climatic factors on malaria incidence in South Africa

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