The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated

The tide gauge record at Brest, France, along Eastern part of Atlantic coast is one of the longest records in Europe spanning 212 years (1807–2019). Analyzing these records has important ramifications in assessing anthropogenic impact of climate change at local and regional scales during this period...

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Autores principales:	İz H. Bâki, Shum C.K.
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Sciendo 2021
Materias:	brest tide gauge mean sea level trend uniform sea level acceleration two phase trend climate change Geodesy QB275-343
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/fed0c989e8294ee8a0d20fba88efd69c
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:fed0c989e8294ee8a0d20fba88efd69c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:fed0c989e8294ee8a0d20fba88efd69c2021-12-05T14:10:52ZThe ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated2081-994310.1515/jogs-2020-0124https://doaj.org/article/fed0c989e8294ee8a0d20fba88efd69c2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1515/jogs-2020-0124https://doaj.org/toc/2081-9943The tide gauge record at Brest, France, along Eastern part of Atlantic coast is one of the longest records in Europe spanning 212 years (1807–2019). Analyzing these records has important ramifications in assessing anthropogenic impact of climate change at local and regional scales during this period. All the previous studies that analyzed Brest’s tide gauge record have used vaguely defined quadratics models and did not incorporate the effect of sea level variations at various frequencies, which confounded the presence or absence of a plausible uniform acceleration. Here, we entertained two competing kinematic models; one with a uniform acceleration representing 212 years of monthly averaged tide gauge data, the other is a two-phase trend model (Phase I is 93 years long and Phase II is 119 years long). Both models include statistically significant (α = 0.05) common periodic effects, and sub and super harmonics of luni-solar origin for representing monthly averaged sea level anomalies observed at Brest. The least squares statistics for both models’ solutions cannot distinguish one model over the other, like earlier studies. However, the assessment of Phase I segment of the records disclosed the absence of a statistically significant trend and a uniform acceleration during this period. This outcome eliminates conclusively the occurrence of a uniform acceleration during the entire 212-year data span of the tide gauge record at Brest, favoring the two-phase trend model as a sound alternative.İz H. BâkiShum C.K.Sciendoarticlebrest tide gaugemean sea level trenduniform sea level accelerationtwo phase trendclimate changeGeodesyQB275-343ENJournal of Geodetic Science, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 95-101 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	brest tide gauge mean sea level trend uniform sea level acceleration two phase trend climate change Geodesy QB275-343
spellingShingle	brest tide gauge mean sea level trend uniform sea level acceleration two phase trend climate change Geodesy QB275-343 İz H. Bâki Shum C.K. The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated
description	The tide gauge record at Brest, France, along Eastern part of Atlantic coast is one of the longest records in Europe spanning 212 years (1807–2019). Analyzing these records has important ramifications in assessing anthropogenic impact of climate change at local and regional scales during this period. All the previous studies that analyzed Brest’s tide gauge record have used vaguely defined quadratics models and did not incorporate the effect of sea level variations at various frequencies, which confounded the presence or absence of a plausible uniform acceleration. Here, we entertained two competing kinematic models; one with a uniform acceleration representing 212 years of monthly averaged tide gauge data, the other is a two-phase trend model (Phase I is 93 years long and Phase II is 119 years long). Both models include statistically significant (α = 0.05) common periodic effects, and sub and super harmonics of luni-solar origin for representing monthly averaged sea level anomalies observed at Brest. The least squares statistics for both models’ solutions cannot distinguish one model over the other, like earlier studies. However, the assessment of Phase I segment of the records disclosed the absence of a statistically significant trend and a uniform acceleration during this period. This outcome eliminates conclusively the occurrence of a uniform acceleration during the entire 212-year data span of the tide gauge record at Brest, favoring the two-phase trend model as a sound alternative.
format	article
author	İz H. Bâki Shum C.K.
author_facet	İz H. Bâki Shum C.K.
author_sort	İz H. Bâki
title	The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated
title_short	The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated
title_full	The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated
title_fullStr	The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated
title_full_unstemmed	The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated
title_sort	ambiguous sea level rise at brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated
publisher	Sciendo
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/fed0c989e8294ee8a0d20fba88efd69c
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The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated

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