Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en Chile

Background: The incidence of infectious diseases generally has large fluctuations, probably due to interactions between seasonal fluctuations and those secondary to case-susceptible host interactions. Aim: To analyze the complexity and attractant topological resemblance of seven infectious diseases...

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Autores principales:	Canals L,Mauricio, Labra S,Fabián
Lenguaje:	Spanish / Castilian
Publicado:	Sociedad Médica de Santiago 1999
Materias:	Communicable diseases Epidemiology Statistics
Acceso en línea:	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98871999000900008
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spelling	oai:scielo:S0034-988719990009000081999-12-13Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en ChileCanals L,MauricioLabra S,Fabián Communicable diseases Epidemiology Statistics Background: The incidence of infectious diseases generally has large fluctuations, probably due to interactions between seasonal fluctuations and those secondary to case-susceptible host interactions. Aim: To analyze the complexity and attractant topological resemblance of seven infectious diseases in Chile. Material and methods: The annual incidence of measles, whooping cough, scarlet fever, meningococcal meningitis, diphtheria, typhoid fever and poliomyelitis was obtained from the annual reports of diseases. Correlation dimensions and the largest Lyapunov series exponents were estimated. The resemblance among their attractants was assessed by Hausdorff distance. The measures were performed both before and after seasonal filtering. Results: All series showed a dynamics near low dimensional chaos. The correlation dimensions ranged between 2.12 and 2.76. The correlation dimensions did not change after seasonal differentiation. Apart from one, all disease dynamics had large Lyapunov exponents, near 0.6 Bits/year. These decreased if series were differentiated. Before differentiation, the topological resemblance was mainly caused by the seasonal component of the dynamics but thereafter, the resemblance increased. In spite of different transmission mechanisms and etiologies, all analyzed infectious diseases conformed a truly single group, during cluster analyses. Conclusions: These results suggest that beneath the dynamics of infectious diseases, obscured by seasonal environmental factors, lays a very consistent nonlinear agent-susceptible host dynamics.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSociedad Médica de SantiagoRevista médica de Chile v.127 n.9 19991999-09-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98871999000900008es10.4067/S0034-98871999000900008
institution	Scielo Chile
collection	Scielo Chile
language	Spanish / Castilian
topic	Communicable diseases Epidemiology Statistics
spellingShingle	Communicable diseases Epidemiology Statistics Canals L,Mauricio Labra S,Fabián Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en Chile
description	Background: The incidence of infectious diseases generally has large fluctuations, probably due to interactions between seasonal fluctuations and those secondary to case-susceptible host interactions. Aim: To analyze the complexity and attractant topological resemblance of seven infectious diseases in Chile. Material and methods: The annual incidence of measles, whooping cough, scarlet fever, meningococcal meningitis, diphtheria, typhoid fever and poliomyelitis was obtained from the annual reports of diseases. Correlation dimensions and the largest Lyapunov series exponents were estimated. The resemblance among their attractants was assessed by Hausdorff distance. The measures were performed both before and after seasonal filtering. Results: All series showed a dynamics near low dimensional chaos. The correlation dimensions ranged between 2.12 and 2.76. The correlation dimensions did not change after seasonal differentiation. Apart from one, all disease dynamics had large Lyapunov exponents, near 0.6 Bits/year. These decreased if series were differentiated. Before differentiation, the topological resemblance was mainly caused by the seasonal component of the dynamics but thereafter, the resemblance increased. In spite of different transmission mechanisms and etiologies, all analyzed infectious diseases conformed a truly single group, during cluster analyses. Conclusions: These results suggest that beneath the dynamics of infectious diseases, obscured by seasonal environmental factors, lays a very consistent nonlinear agent-susceptible host dynamics.
author	Canals L,Mauricio Labra S,Fabián
author_facet	Canals L,Mauricio Labra S,Fabián
author_sort	Canals L,Mauricio
title	Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en Chile
title_short	Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en Chile
title_full	Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en Chile
title_fullStr	Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en Chile
title_full_unstemmed	Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en Chile
title_sort	análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en chile
publisher	Sociedad Médica de Santiago
publishDate	1999
url	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98871999000900008
work_keys_str_mv	AT canalslmauricio analisisnolinealdeladinamicadeenfermedadesinfecciosasenchile AT labrasfabian analisisnolinealdeladinamicadeenfermedadesinfecciosasenchile
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Análisis no-lineal de la dinámica de enfermedades infecciosas en Chile

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