Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile

In order to increase awareness of the pandemic and to streamline control measures before any new outbreak of influenza we analyze the behavior of the cases of Chile and from 9 countries with more cases in 2009. Reproductive numbers, doubling times and estimations of susceptible and infected at the e...

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Autor principal:	CANALS L,MAURICIO
Lenguaje:	Spanish / Castilian
Publicado:	Sociedad Médica de Santiago 2010
Materias:	Disease outbreaks Epidemiology Influenza, human World Health Organization
Acceso en línea:	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98872010000900016
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spelling	oai:scielo:S0034-988720100009000162010-11-09Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en ChileCANALS L,MAURICIO Disease outbreaks Epidemiology Influenza, human World Health Organization In order to increase awareness of the pandemic and to streamline control measures before any new outbreak of influenza we analyze the behavior of the cases of Chile and from 9 countries with more cases in 2009. Reproductive numbers, doubling times and estimations of susceptible and infected at the end of the epidemic were estimated. Epidemic curves to the situation in Chile under different initial conditions were adjusted and simulations for different reproductive numbers and notification scenarios were performed. The reproductive numbers varied between 1.37 and 1.82, with doubling times of between 5 and 8 days at 30 days of the epidemic. According to this, the proportions of infected by the end of the epidemic vary between 58% and 78.5%. The transmission coefficient ranged from 2 to 132 new cases per day x 10(6) susceptible individuals. The adjustments showed that the onset of the epidemic probably had more cases than reported. All estimates suggest that there must have been a large number of susceptible and therefore can not be explained as small outbreaks in 2009. A large number of susceptible individuals may still exist who are at risk from a possible new outbreak.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSociedad Médica de SantiagoRevista médica de Chile v.138 n.9 20102010-09-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98872010000900016es10.4067/S0034-98872010000900016
institution	Scielo Chile
collection	Scielo Chile
language	Spanish / Castilian
topic	Disease outbreaks Epidemiology Influenza, human World Health Organization
spellingShingle	Disease outbreaks Epidemiology Influenza, human World Health Organization CANALS L,MAURICIO Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile
description	In order to increase awareness of the pandemic and to streamline control measures before any new outbreak of influenza we analyze the behavior of the cases of Chile and from 9 countries with more cases in 2009. Reproductive numbers, doubling times and estimations of susceptible and infected at the end of the epidemic were estimated. Epidemic curves to the situation in Chile under different initial conditions were adjusted and simulations for different reproductive numbers and notification scenarios were performed. The reproductive numbers varied between 1.37 and 1.82, with doubling times of between 5 and 8 days at 30 days of the epidemic. According to this, the proportions of infected by the end of the epidemic vary between 58% and 78.5%. The transmission coefficient ranged from 2 to 132 new cases per day x 10(6) susceptible individuals. The adjustments showed that the onset of the epidemic probably had more cases than reported. All estimates suggest that there must have been a large number of susceptible and therefore can not be explained as small outbreaks in 2009. A large number of susceptible individuals may still exist who are at risk from a possible new outbreak.
author	CANALS L,MAURICIO
author_facet	CANALS L,MAURICIO
author_sort	CANALS L,MAURICIO
title	Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile
title_short	Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile
title_full	Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile
title_fullStr	Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile
title_full_unstemmed	Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile
title_sort	análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la influenza a (h1n1) en chile
publisher	Sociedad Médica de Santiago
publishDate	2010
url	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98872010000900016
work_keys_str_mv	AT canalslmauricio analisiscomparadodeladinamicaepidemiologicadelainfluenzaah1n1enchile
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Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile

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