Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos

Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos

Since the declaration of SARS CoV-2 pandemic, we have witnessed an accelerated increase in new cases, frequently associated with the need for intensive care and mechanical ventilation. In parallel, we have been invaded by many experts in the press and who expose their knowledge on the behavior of ep...

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Autores principales: González-Fuenzalida,Fernando, González-Cohens,Francisca
Lenguaje:Spanish / Castilian
Publicado: Sociedad Médica de Santiago 2021
Materias:
Basic Reproduction Number
Models, Theoretical
Communicable Diseases
Pandemics
Acceso en línea:http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98872021000300422
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spelling oai:scielo:S0034-988720210003004222021-10-14Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellosGonzález-Fuenzalida,FernandoGonzález-Cohens,Francisca Basic Reproduction Number Models, Theoretical Communicable Diseases Pandemics Since the declaration of SARS CoV-2 pandemic, we have witnessed an accelerated increase in new cases, frequently associated with the need for intensive care and mechanical ventilation. In parallel, we have been invaded by many experts in the press and who expose their knowledge on the behavior of epidemics who use concepts that are not always well understood by the medical community. Some concepts should be knowledgeable to understand the epidemic spread. First, the epidemic spread description is not modeled with an exponential curve, but rather with a Gompertz curve. Second, a gamma curve describes the period of contagiousness. Third, the contagion magnitude or rate can be calculated and modeled. Explaining these mathematical concepts in a simple and graphic way will allow readers to understand better what is happening with the current pandemic.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSociedad Médica de SantiagoRevista médica de Chile v.149 n.3 20212021-03-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98872021000300422es10.4067/s0034-98872021000300422
institution Scielo Chile
collection Scielo Chile
language Spanish / Castilian
topic Basic Reproduction Number
Models, Theoretical
Communicable Diseases
Pandemics
spellingShingle Basic Reproduction Number
Models, Theoretical
Communicable Diseases
Pandemics
González-Fuenzalida,Fernando
González-Cohens,Francisca
Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos
description Since the declaration of SARS CoV-2 pandemic, we have witnessed an accelerated increase in new cases, frequently associated with the need for intensive care and mechanical ventilation. In parallel, we have been invaded by many experts in the press and who expose their knowledge on the behavior of epidemics who use concepts that are not always well understood by the medical community. Some concepts should be knowledgeable to understand the epidemic spread. First, the epidemic spread description is not modeled with an exponential curve, but rather with a Gompertz curve. Second, a gamma curve describes the period of contagiousness. Third, the contagion magnitude or rate can be calculated and modeled. Explaining these mathematical concepts in a simple and graphic way will allow readers to understand better what is happening with the current pandemic.
author González-Fuenzalida,Fernando
González-Cohens,Francisca
author_facet González-Fuenzalida,Fernando
González-Cohens,Francisca
author_sort González-Fuenzalida,Fernando
title Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos
title_short Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos
title_full Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos
title_fullStr Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos
title_full_unstemmed Epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos
title_sort epidemias en la actualidad: de cómo los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten entenderlas, aún a profesionales “adversos” a ellos
publisher Sociedad Médica de Santiago
publishDate 2021
url http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-98872021000300422
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