Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America

Under current conditions, large areas of temperate western North America and temperate southern South America have arid to subhumid climates that make them vulnerable to changes as a result of human-induced climate change. Predictions of climate change from global circulation models with a doubling...

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Autores principales:	LAUENROTH,W.K., EPSTEIN,H.E., PARUELO,J.M., BURKE,I.C., AGUIAR,M.R., SALA,O.E.
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	Sociedad de Biología de Chile 2004
Materias:	climate change temperate ecosystems global circulation model CO2
Acceso en línea:	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0716-078X2004000300004
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spelling	oai:scielo:S0716-078X20040003000042004-10-21Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South AmericaLAUENROTH,W.K.EPSTEIN,H.E.PARUELO,J.M.BURKE,I.C.AGUIAR,M.R.SALA,O.E. climate change temperate ecosystems global circulation model CO2 Under current conditions, large areas of temperate western North America and temperate southern South America have arid to subhumid climates that make them vulnerable to changes as a result of human-induced climate change. Predictions of climate change from global circulation models with a doubling of present atmospheric levels of CO2 suggest large changes in mean annual temperature and small to no changes in mean annual precipitation and the proportion of precipitation received during the summer. Our objective here was to evaluate how predictions of climate change from global circulation models will influence climatic patterns and by inference the distribution of temperate zone ecosystems in North and South America. Calculations of annual water deficits suggest that the area affected by very dry conditions will double as a result of climate change. This expansion will take place in the vicinity of the currently dry areas. Monthly water deficit calculations suggest that approximately half of the temperate zone on each continent is affected by at least one month of deficit. Under a doubled CO2 climate, these areas would expand to cover up to 77 % of the temperate zone of North America and up to 80 % of South America. The resulting changes to the current distribution of ecosystems will likely be an expansion of deserts at the expense of grasslands in North and South America and an expansion of grasslands at the expense of deciduous and boreal forest in North America. Our analyses assumed that future climatic changes will be encompassed by the predictions of our three doubled CO2 scenarios. The most likely situation is that actual changes, if they occur, will be different from our scenarios. Therefore, our analyses should be interpreted as indications of the sensitivity of portions of the North and South American temperate zones to increases in temperature. The key conclusion from our analyses is that any increase in temperature caused by climate change will result in expansion of the driest portions of both continentsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSociedad de Biología de ChileRevista chilena de historia natural v.77 n.3 20042004-09-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0716-078X2004000300004en10.4067/S0716-078X2004000300004
institution	Scielo Chile
collection	Scielo Chile
language	English
topic	climate change temperate ecosystems global circulation model CO2
spellingShingle	climate change temperate ecosystems global circulation model CO2 LAUENROTH,W.K. EPSTEIN,H.E. PARUELO,J.M. BURKE,I.C. AGUIAR,M.R. SALA,O.E. Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America
description	Under current conditions, large areas of temperate western North America and temperate southern South America have arid to subhumid climates that make them vulnerable to changes as a result of human-induced climate change. Predictions of climate change from global circulation models with a doubling of present atmospheric levels of CO2 suggest large changes in mean annual temperature and small to no changes in mean annual precipitation and the proportion of precipitation received during the summer. Our objective here was to evaluate how predictions of climate change from global circulation models will influence climatic patterns and by inference the distribution of temperate zone ecosystems in North and South America. Calculations of annual water deficits suggest that the area affected by very dry conditions will double as a result of climate change. This expansion will take place in the vicinity of the currently dry areas. Monthly water deficit calculations suggest that approximately half of the temperate zone on each continent is affected by at least one month of deficit. Under a doubled CO2 climate, these areas would expand to cover up to 77 % of the temperate zone of North America and up to 80 % of South America. The resulting changes to the current distribution of ecosystems will likely be an expansion of deserts at the expense of grasslands in North and South America and an expansion of grasslands at the expense of deciduous and boreal forest in North America. Our analyses assumed that future climatic changes will be encompassed by the predictions of our three doubled CO2 scenarios. The most likely situation is that actual changes, if they occur, will be different from our scenarios. Therefore, our analyses should be interpreted as indications of the sensitivity of portions of the North and South American temperate zones to increases in temperature. The key conclusion from our analyses is that any increase in temperature caused by climate change will result in expansion of the driest portions of both continents
author	LAUENROTH,W.K. EPSTEIN,H.E. PARUELO,J.M. BURKE,I.C. AGUIAR,M.R. SALA,O.E.
author_facet	LAUENROTH,W.K. EPSTEIN,H.E. PARUELO,J.M. BURKE,I.C. AGUIAR,M.R. SALA,O.E.
author_sort	LAUENROTH,W.K.
title	Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America
title_short	Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America
title_full	Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America
title_fullStr	Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America
title_full_unstemmed	Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America
title_sort	potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of north and south america
publisher	Sociedad de Biología de Chile
publishDate	2004
url	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0716-078X2004000300004
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Potential effects of climate change on the temperate zones of North and South America

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