Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
ABSTRACT What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitut...
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| Lenguaje: | English |
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Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-090X2021000300449 |
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| Sumario: | ABSTRACT What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The results of our investigation of voting behaviour are most supportive of a retrospective voting interpretation. Dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Bolivia and having experienced regional protests are both shown to be the strongest predictors of a “No” vote. The results support the claim that valence issues most significantly determine voting behaviour in new democracies, yet they also suggest that retrospective assessments of governmental performance extend further than mere economic conditions. |
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