Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum

ABSTRACT What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitut...

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Autor principal:	Blanchard,Maxime
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política 2021
Materias:	Latin American left Positional Voting Retrospective Voting Bolivia Constitutional Referendum
Acceso en línea:	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-090X2021000300449
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spelling	oai:scielo:S0718-090X20210003004492021-12-01Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional ReferendumBlanchard,Maxime Latin American left Positional Voting Retrospective Voting Bolivia Constitutional Referendum ABSTRACT What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The results of our investigation of voting behaviour are most supportive of a retrospective voting interpretation. Dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Bolivia and having experienced regional protests are both shown to be the strongest predictors of a “No” vote. The results support the claim that valence issues most significantly determine voting behaviour in new democracies, yet they also suggest that retrospective assessments of governmental performance extend further than mere economic conditions.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia PolíticaRevista de ciencia política (Santiago) v.41 n.3 20212021-12-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-090X2021000300449en10.4067/S0718-090X2021005000101
institution	Scielo Chile
collection	Scielo Chile
language	English
topic	Latin American left Positional Voting Retrospective Voting Bolivia Constitutional Referendum
spellingShingle	Latin American left Positional Voting Retrospective Voting Bolivia Constitutional Referendum Blanchard,Maxime Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
description	ABSTRACT What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The results of our investigation of voting behaviour are most supportive of a retrospective voting interpretation. Dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Bolivia and having experienced regional protests are both shown to be the strongest predictors of a “No” vote. The results support the claim that valence issues most significantly determine voting behaviour in new democracies, yet they also suggest that retrospective assessments of governmental performance extend further than mere economic conditions.
author	Blanchard,Maxime
author_facet	Blanchard,Maxime
author_sort	Blanchard,Maxime
title	Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_short	Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_full	Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_fullStr	Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_full_unstemmed	Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_sort	who said no? voting behaviour in the 2016 bolivian constitutional referendum
publisher	Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política
publishDate	2021
url	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-090X2021000300449
work_keys_str_mv	AT blanchardmaxime whosaidnovotingbehaviourinthe2016bolivianconstitutionalreferendum
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Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum

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