Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum

ABSTRACT What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitut...

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Autor principal: Blanchard,Maxime
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política 2021
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Acceso en línea:http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-090X2021005000101
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spelling oai:scielo:S0718-090X20210050001012021-05-27Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional ReferendumBlanchard,Maxime Latin American left Positional Voting Retrospective Voting Bolivia Constitutional Referendum ABSTRACT What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The results of our investigation of voting behaviour are most supportive of a retrospective voting interpretation. Dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Bolivia and having experienced regional protests are both shown to be the strongest predictors of a “No” vote. The results support the claim that valence issues most significantly determine voting behaviour in new democracies, yet they also suggest that retrospective assessments of governmental performance extend further than mere economic conditions.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia PolíticaRevista de ciencia política (Santiago) n.ahead 20212021-01-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-090X2021005000101en10.4067/S0718-090X2021005000101
institution Scielo Chile
collection Scielo Chile
language English
topic Latin American left
Positional Voting
Retrospective Voting
Bolivia
Constitutional Referendum
spellingShingle Latin American left
Positional Voting
Retrospective Voting
Bolivia
Constitutional Referendum
Blanchard,Maxime
Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
description ABSTRACT What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America's leftist governments during the 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing the 2016 constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The results of our investigation of voting behaviour are most supportive of a retrospective voting interpretation. Dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in Bolivia and having experienced regional protests are both shown to be the strongest predictors of a “No” vote. The results support the claim that valence issues most significantly determine voting behaviour in new democracies, yet they also suggest that retrospective assessments of governmental performance extend further than mere economic conditions.
author Blanchard,Maxime
author_facet Blanchard,Maxime
author_sort Blanchard,Maxime
title Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_short Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_full Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_fullStr Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_full_unstemmed Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum
title_sort who said no? voting behaviour in the 2016 bolivian constitutional referendum
publisher Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política
publishDate 2021
url http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-090X2021005000101
work_keys_str_mv AT blanchardmaxime whosaidnovotingbehaviourinthe2016bolivianconstitutionalreferendum
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