Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model

Water resources modelers face the challenge of dealing with numerous uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge of the natural systems, numerical approaches used in modeling (equations, parameters, structures, solutions), and field data collected to set up and evaluate models. Propagation of paramet...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Diaz-Ramirez,Jairo, Camacho,Rene, McAnally,William, Martin,James
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-28132012000200004
Etiquetas: Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
id oai:scielo:S0718-28132012000200004
record_format dspace
spelling oai:scielo:S0718-281320120002000042013-05-02Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological modelDiaz-Ramirez,JairoCamacho,ReneMcAnally,WilliamMartin,James HSPF parameter uncertainty Monte Carlo simulation Harr's point estimation method uncertainty bounds of streamflow simulations Water resources modelers face the challenge of dealing with numerous uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge of the natural systems, numerical approaches used in modeling (equations, parameters, structures, solutions), and field data collected to set up and evaluate models. Propagation of parameter uncertainty into model results is a relevant topic in environmental hydrology. Uncertainty analyses improve assessment ofhydrological modeling. There is a need in modern hydrology of developing and testing uncertainty analysis methods that support hydrological model evaluation. In this research the propagation of model parameter uncertainty into streamflow model results is evaluated. The Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency was evaluated using hydroenvironmental data from the Luxapallila Creek watershed located in Mississippi and Alabama, USA. The uncertainty bounds ofmodel outputs were computed using the Monte Carlo simulation and Harr 's point estimation methods. Analysis of parameter uncertainty propagation on streamflow simulations from 12 HSPF parameters was accomplished using 5,000 Monte Carlo random samples and 24 Harr selected points for each selected parameter. The comparison showed that Harr's method could be an appropriate initial indicator of parameter uncertainty propagation on streamflow simulations, particularly for hydrology models with several parameters.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessUniversidad Católica de la Santísima ConcepciónObras y proyectos n.12 20122012-01-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-28132012000200004en10.4067/S0718-28132012000200004
institution Scielo Chile
collection Scielo Chile
language English
topic HSPF
parameter uncertainty
Monte Carlo simulation
Harr's point estimation method
uncertainty bounds of streamflow simulations
spellingShingle HSPF
parameter uncertainty
Monte Carlo simulation
Harr's point estimation method
uncertainty bounds of streamflow simulations
Diaz-Ramirez,Jairo
Camacho,Rene
McAnally,William
Martin,James
Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model
description Water resources modelers face the challenge of dealing with numerous uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge of the natural systems, numerical approaches used in modeling (equations, parameters, structures, solutions), and field data collected to set up and evaluate models. Propagation of parameter uncertainty into model results is a relevant topic in environmental hydrology. Uncertainty analyses improve assessment ofhydrological modeling. There is a need in modern hydrology of developing and testing uncertainty analysis methods that support hydrological model evaluation. In this research the propagation of model parameter uncertainty into streamflow model results is evaluated. The Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency was evaluated using hydroenvironmental data from the Luxapallila Creek watershed located in Mississippi and Alabama, USA. The uncertainty bounds ofmodel outputs were computed using the Monte Carlo simulation and Harr 's point estimation methods. Analysis of parameter uncertainty propagation on streamflow simulations from 12 HSPF parameters was accomplished using 5,000 Monte Carlo random samples and 24 Harr selected points for each selected parameter. The comparison showed that Harr's method could be an appropriate initial indicator of parameter uncertainty propagation on streamflow simulations, particularly for hydrology models with several parameters.
author Diaz-Ramirez,Jairo
Camacho,Rene
McAnally,William
Martin,James
author_facet Diaz-Ramirez,Jairo
Camacho,Rene
McAnally,William
Martin,James
author_sort Diaz-Ramirez,Jairo
title Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model
title_short Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model
title_full Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model
title_fullStr Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model
title_full_unstemmed Parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model
title_sort parameter uncertainty methods in evaluating a lumped hydrological model
publisher Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción
publishDate 2012
url http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-28132012000200004
work_keys_str_mv AT diazramirezjairo parameteruncertaintymethodsinevaluatingalumpedhydrologicalmodel
AT camachorene parameteruncertaintymethodsinevaluatingalumpedhydrologicalmodel
AT mcanallywilliam parameteruncertaintymethodsinevaluatingalumpedhydrologicalmodel
AT martinjames parameteruncertaintymethodsinevaluatingalumpedhydrologicalmodel
_version_ 1714203330284093440