Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina

The identification of suitable models for predicting daily water flow is important for planning and management of water storage in reservoirs of Argentina. Long-term prediction of water flow is crucial for regulating reservoirs and hydroelectric plants, for assessing environmental protection and sus...

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Autores principales:	Pierini,Jorge O, Gómez,Eduardo A, Telesca,Luciano
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. Facultad de Recursos Naturales. Escuela de Ciencias del Mar 2012
Materias:	prediction time series neural networks autoregressive models flows Colorado River Argentina
Acceso en línea:	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-560X2012000400005
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spelling	oai:scielo:S0718-560X20120004000052013-04-12Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, ArgentinaPierini,Jorge OGómez,Eduardo ATelesca,Luciano prediction time series neural networks autoregressive models flows Colorado River Argentina The identification of suitable models for predicting daily water flow is important for planning and management of water storage in reservoirs of Argentina. Long-term prediction of water flow is crucial for regulating reservoirs and hydroelectric plants, for assessing environmental protection and sustainable development, for guaranteeing correct operation of public water supply in cities like Catriel, 25 de Mayo, Colorado River and potentially also Bahía Blanca. In this paper, we analyze in Buta Ranquil flow time series upstream reservoir and hydroelectric plant in order to model and predict daily fluctuations. We compare results obtained by using a three-layer artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive (AR) model, using 18 years of data, of which the last 3 years are used for model validation by means of the root mean square error (RMSE), and measure of certainty (Skill). Our results point out to the better performance to predict daily water flow or refill them of the ANN model performance respect to the AR model.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. Facultad de Recursos Naturales. Escuela de Ciencias del MarLatin american journal of aquatic research v.40 n.4 20122012-11-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-560X2012000400005en103856/vol40-issue4-fulltext-5
institution	Scielo Chile
collection	Scielo Chile
language	English
topic	prediction time series neural networks autoregressive models flows Colorado River Argentina
spellingShingle	prediction time series neural networks autoregressive models flows Colorado River Argentina Pierini,Jorge O Gómez,Eduardo A Telesca,Luciano Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina
description	The identification of suitable models for predicting daily water flow is important for planning and management of water storage in reservoirs of Argentina. Long-term prediction of water flow is crucial for regulating reservoirs and hydroelectric plants, for assessing environmental protection and sustainable development, for guaranteeing correct operation of public water supply in cities like Catriel, 25 de Mayo, Colorado River and potentially also Bahía Blanca. In this paper, we analyze in Buta Ranquil flow time series upstream reservoir and hydroelectric plant in order to model and predict daily fluctuations. We compare results obtained by using a three-layer artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive (AR) model, using 18 years of data, of which the last 3 years are used for model validation by means of the root mean square error (RMSE), and measure of certainty (Skill). Our results point out to the better performance to predict daily water flow or refill them of the ANN model performance respect to the AR model.
author	Pierini,Jorge O Gómez,Eduardo A Telesca,Luciano
author_facet	Pierini,Jorge O Gómez,Eduardo A Telesca,Luciano
author_sort	Pierini,Jorge O
title	Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina
title_short	Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina
title_full	Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina
title_fullStr	Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina
title_sort	prediction of water flows in colorado river, argentina
publisher	Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. Facultad de Recursos Naturales. Escuela de Ciencias del Mar
publishDate	2012
url	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-560X2012000400005
work_keys_str_mv	AT pierinijorgeo predictionofwaterflowsincoloradoriverargentina AT gomezeduardoa predictionofwaterflowsincoloradoriverargentina AT telescaluciano predictionofwaterflowsincoloradoriverargentina
_version_	1714205099480317952

Prediction of water flows in Colorado River, Argentina

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