Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability

The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet's overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus,...

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Autores principales:	Almendarez-Hernández,Luis César, Ponce-Díaz,Germán, Lluch-Belda,Daniel, del Monte-Luna,Pablo, Saldívar-Lucio,Romeo
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. Facultad de Recursos Naturales. Escuela de Ciencias del Mar 2015
Materias:	shrimp sensitivity analysis risk uncertainty Gulf of California México
Acceso en línea:	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-560X2015000400004
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spelling	oai:scielo:S0718-560X20150004000042015-12-04Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variabilityAlmendarez-Hernández,Luis CésarPonce-Díaz,GermánLluch-Belda,Danieldel Monte-Luna,PabloSaldívar-Lucio,Romeo shrimp sensitivity analysis risk uncertainty Gulf of California México The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet's overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economic simulation pointed to the vessel type used in Guaymas (Sonora) as the most efficient one under a neutral climate change scenario, showing a homogeneous behaviour in physical characteristics and mode of operation. By contrast, under a scenario of a monotonic rise in sea surface temperature, the shrimp fishery faces a greater risk of incurring economic losses. The simulated climate behaviour scenarios revealed that the activity involves a moderate economic profitability under the neutral scenario; however, under the warming scenario, profitability may be low or even nil due to the risks and uncertainty resulting from the influence of environmental phenomena.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. Facultad de Recursos Naturales. Escuela de Ciencias del MarLatin american journal of aquatic research v.43 n.4 20152015-09-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-560X2015000400004en10.3856/vol43-issue4-fulltext-4
institution	Scielo Chile
collection	Scielo Chile
language	English
topic	shrimp sensitivity analysis risk uncertainty Gulf of California México
spellingShingle	shrimp sensitivity analysis risk uncertainty Gulf of California México Almendarez-Hernández,Luis César Ponce-Díaz,Germán Lluch-Belda,Daniel del Monte-Luna,Pablo Saldívar-Lucio,Romeo Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability
description	The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet's overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economic simulation pointed to the vessel type used in Guaymas (Sonora) as the most efficient one under a neutral climate change scenario, showing a homogeneous behaviour in physical characteristics and mode of operation. By contrast, under a scenario of a monotonic rise in sea surface temperature, the shrimp fishery faces a greater risk of incurring economic losses. The simulated climate behaviour scenarios revealed that the activity involves a moderate economic profitability under the neutral scenario; however, under the warming scenario, profitability may be low or even nil due to the risks and uncertainty resulting from the influence of environmental phenomena.
author	Almendarez-Hernández,Luis César Ponce-Díaz,Germán Lluch-Belda,Daniel del Monte-Luna,Pablo Saldívar-Lucio,Romeo
author_facet	Almendarez-Hernández,Luis César Ponce-Díaz,Germán Lluch-Belda,Daniel del Monte-Luna,Pablo Saldívar-Lucio,Romeo
author_sort	Almendarez-Hernández,Luis César
title	Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability
title_short	Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability
title_full	Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability
title_fullStr	Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability
title_full_unstemmed	Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability
title_sort	risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the gulf of california considering environmental variability
publisher	Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. Facultad de Recursos Naturales. Escuela de Ciencias del Mar
publishDate	2015
url	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-560X2015000400004
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Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability

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