On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses

A sequence of 150 explosive eruptions recorded during the past century at the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) is subjected to statistical time series analysis. The exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the eruption record, separately for literature-assigned vo...

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Autores principales:	Dzierma,Yvonne, Wehrmann,Heidi
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN) 2012
Materias:	Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone Eruption time series analysis Probabilistic eruption forecasting Volcanic hazards
Acceso en línea:	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-71062012000300002
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spelling	oai:scielo:S0718-710620120003000022012-11-15On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analysesDzierma,YvonneWehrmann,Heidi Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone Eruption time series analysis Probabilistic eruption forecasting Volcanic hazards A sequence of 150 explosive eruptions recorded during the past century at the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) is subjected to statistical time series analysis. The exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the eruption record, separately for literature-assigned volcanic exploslvlty indices (VEI) ≥ 2 and VEI ≥ 3. Since statistical tests confirm the adequacy of all the fits to describe the data, all models are used to estimate the likelihood of future eruptions. Only small differences are observed between the different distribution functions with regard to the eruption forecast, whereby the log-logistic distribution predicts the lowest probabilities. There is a 50% probability for VEI ≥ 2 eruptions to occur in the SVZ within less than a year, and 90% probability to occur within the next 2-3 years. For the larger VEI ≥ 3 eruptions, the 50% probability is reached in 3-4 years, while the 90% level is reached in 9-11 years.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessServicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN)Andean geology v.39 n.3 20122012-09-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-71062012000300002en10.5027/andgeoV39n3-a02
institution	Scielo Chile
collection	Scielo Chile
language	English
topic	Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone Eruption time series analysis Probabilistic eruption forecasting Volcanic hazards
spellingShingle	Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone Eruption time series analysis Probabilistic eruption forecasting Volcanic hazards Dzierma,Yvonne Wehrmann,Heidi On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses
description	A sequence of 150 explosive eruptions recorded during the past century at the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) is subjected to statistical time series analysis. The exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the eruption record, separately for literature-assigned volcanic exploslvlty indices (VEI) ≥ 2 and VEI ≥ 3. Since statistical tests confirm the adequacy of all the fits to describe the data, all models are used to estimate the likelihood of future eruptions. Only small differences are observed between the different distribution functions with regard to the eruption forecast, whereby the log-logistic distribution predicts the lowest probabilities. There is a 50% probability for VEI ≥ 2 eruptions to occur in the SVZ within less than a year, and 90% probability to occur within the next 2-3 years. For the larger VEI ≥ 3 eruptions, the 50% probability is reached in 3-4 years, while the 90% level is reached in 9-11 years.
author	Dzierma,Yvonne Wehrmann,Heidi
author_facet	Dzierma,Yvonne Wehrmann,Heidi
author_sort	Dzierma,Yvonne
title	On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses
title_short	On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses
title_full	On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses
title_fullStr	On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses
title_full_unstemmed	On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses
title_sort	on the likelihood of future eruptions in the chilean southern volcanic zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses
publisher	Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN)
publishDate	2012
url	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-71062012000300002
work_keys_str_mv	AT dziermayvonne onthelikelihoodoffutureeruptionsinthechileansouthernvolcaniczoneinterpretingthepastcenturyseruptionrecordbasedonstatisticalanalyses AT wehrmannheidi onthelikelihoodoffutureeruptionsinthechileansouthernvolcaniczoneinterpretingthepastcenturyseruptionrecordbasedonstatisticalanalyses
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On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses

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