Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco War

Abstract: This article evaluates two theories that seek to explain the outcomes of asymmetric conflicts. It uses evidence from a case study of the Arauco War (1536-1883). The war resulted, unlike most other instances of European colonization, in the victory of the weaker side. The first theory argue...

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Autor principal:	Disi Pavlic,Rodolfo
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	Instituto de Estudios Internacionales, Universidad de Chile 2018
Materias:	Asymmetrical warfare Guerrilla Arauco War Identification Problem Conquest of the Americas
Acceso en línea:	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0719-37692018000100097
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spelling	oai:scielo:S0719-376920180001000972018-05-23Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco WarDisi Pavlic,Rodolfo Asymmetrical warfare Guerrilla Arauco War Identification Problem Conquest of the Americas Abstract: This article evaluates two theories that seek to explain the outcomes of asymmetric conflicts. It uses evidence from a case study of the Arauco War (1536-1883). The war resulted, unlike most other instances of European colonization, in the victory of the weaker side. The first theory argues that in asymmetrical warfare, opponents choose between direct (conventional) and indirect (guerrilla) approaches; the stronger side is more likely to win same-approach interactions, while the weaker side is more likely to prevail in different-approach interactions. The second theory advances the claim that when armies become mechanized, they gather less intelligence from the ground, and are therefore less likely to solve the information problem - te- lling combatants apart from noncombatants. The analysis of the Arauco War shows the limitations of the first theory: the stronger side can easily win some different-approach (indirect- direct) interactions, while the weaker can win same-approach (indirect-indirect) ones. The study lends support to the second theory, especially once it is generalized to include cultural differences as factors that exacerbate the identification problem.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessInstituto de Estudios Internacionales, Universidad de ChileEstudios internacionales (Santiago) v.50 n.189 20182018-04-01text/htmlhttp://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0719-37692018000100097en10.5354/0719-3769.2018.49062
institution	Scielo Chile
collection	Scielo Chile
language	English
topic	Asymmetrical warfare Guerrilla Arauco War Identification Problem Conquest of the Americas
spellingShingle	Asymmetrical warfare Guerrilla Arauco War Identification Problem Conquest of the Americas Disi Pavlic,Rodolfo Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco War
description	Abstract: This article evaluates two theories that seek to explain the outcomes of asymmetric conflicts. It uses evidence from a case study of the Arauco War (1536-1883). The war resulted, unlike most other instances of European colonization, in the victory of the weaker side. The first theory argues that in asymmetrical warfare, opponents choose between direct (conventional) and indirect (guerrilla) approaches; the stronger side is more likely to win same-approach interactions, while the weaker side is more likely to prevail in different-approach interactions. The second theory advances the claim that when armies become mechanized, they gather less intelligence from the ground, and are therefore less likely to solve the information problem - te- lling combatants apart from noncombatants. The analysis of the Arauco War shows the limitations of the first theory: the stronger side can easily win some different-approach (indirect- direct) interactions, while the weaker can win same-approach (indirect-indirect) ones. The study lends support to the second theory, especially once it is generalized to include cultural differences as factors that exacerbate the identification problem.
author	Disi Pavlic,Rodolfo
author_facet	Disi Pavlic,Rodolfo
author_sort	Disi Pavlic,Rodolfo
title	Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco War
title_short	Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco War
title_full	Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco War
title_fullStr	Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco War
title_full_unstemmed	Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco War
title_sort	explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the arauco war
publisher	Instituto de Estudios Internacionales, Universidad de Chile
publishDate	2018
url	http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0719-37692018000100097
work_keys_str_mv	AT disipavlicrodolfo explainingoutcomesofasymmetricconflictsrevisitedthearaucowar
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Explaining outcomes of asymmetric conflicts revisited: the Arauco War

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