How the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.

Political candidates often believe they must focus their campaign efforts on a small number of swing voters open for ideological change. Based on the wisdom of opinion polls, this might seem like a good idea. But do most voters really hold their political attitudes so firmly that they are unreceptiv...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Lars Hall, Thomas Strandberg, Philip Pärnamets, Andreas Lind, Betty Tärning, Petter Johansson
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/4b93f999d5b54f4e9cf3bfbba96fa8cb
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:4b93f999d5b54f4e9cf3bfbba96fa8cb
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:4b93f999d5b54f4e9cf3bfbba96fa8cb2021-11-18T07:49:51ZHow the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0060554https://doaj.org/article/4b93f999d5b54f4e9cf3bfbba96fa8cb2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23593244/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Political candidates often believe they must focus their campaign efforts on a small number of swing voters open for ideological change. Based on the wisdom of opinion polls, this might seem like a good idea. But do most voters really hold their political attitudes so firmly that they are unreceptive to persuasion? We tested this premise during the most recent general election in Sweden, in which a left- and a right-wing coalition were locked in a close race. We asked our participants to state their voter intention, and presented them with a political survey of wedge issues between the two coalitions. Using a sleight-of-hand we then altered their replies to place them in the opposite political camp, and invited them to reason about their attitudes on the manipulated issues. Finally, we summarized their survey score, and asked for their voter intention again. The results showed that no more than 22% of the manipulated replies were detected, and that a full 92% of the participants accepted and endorsed our altered political survey score. Furthermore, the final voter intention question indicated that as many as 48% (±9.2%) were willing to consider a left-right coalition shift. This can be contrasted with the established polls tracking the Swedish election, which registered maximally 10% voters open for a swing. Our results indicate that political attitudes and partisan divisions can be far more flexible than what is assumed by the polls, and that people can reason about the factual issues of the campaign with considerable openness to change.Lars HallThomas StrandbergPhilip PärnametsAndreas LindBetty TärningPetter JohanssonPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 4, p e60554 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Lars Hall Thomas Strandberg Philip Pärnamets Andreas Lind Betty Tärning Petter Johansson How the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.
description	Political candidates often believe they must focus their campaign efforts on a small number of swing voters open for ideological change. Based on the wisdom of opinion polls, this might seem like a good idea. But do most voters really hold their political attitudes so firmly that they are unreceptive to persuasion? We tested this premise during the most recent general election in Sweden, in which a left- and a right-wing coalition were locked in a close race. We asked our participants to state their voter intention, and presented them with a political survey of wedge issues between the two coalitions. Using a sleight-of-hand we then altered their replies to place them in the opposite political camp, and invited them to reason about their attitudes on the manipulated issues. Finally, we summarized their survey score, and asked for their voter intention again. The results showed that no more than 22% of the manipulated replies were detected, and that a full 92% of the participants accepted and endorsed our altered political survey score. Furthermore, the final voter intention question indicated that as many as 48% (±9.2%) were willing to consider a left-right coalition shift. This can be contrasted with the established polls tracking the Swedish election, which registered maximally 10% voters open for a swing. Our results indicate that political attitudes and partisan divisions can be far more flexible than what is assumed by the polls, and that people can reason about the factual issues of the campaign with considerable openness to change.
format	article
author	Lars Hall Thomas Strandberg Philip Pärnamets Andreas Lind Betty Tärning Petter Johansson
author_facet	Lars Hall Thomas Strandberg Philip Pärnamets Andreas Lind Betty Tärning Petter Johansson
author_sort	Lars Hall
title	How the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.
title_short	How the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.
title_full	How the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.
title_fullStr	How the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.
title_full_unstemmed	How the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.
title_sort	how the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/4b93f999d5b54f4e9cf3bfbba96fa8cb
work_keys_str_mv	AT larshall howthepollscanbebothspotonanddeadwrongusingchoiceblindnesstoshiftpoliticalattitudesandvoterintentions AT thomasstrandberg howthepollscanbebothspotonanddeadwrongusingchoiceblindnesstoshiftpoliticalattitudesandvoterintentions AT philipparnamets howthepollscanbebothspotonanddeadwrongusingchoiceblindnesstoshiftpoliticalattitudesandvoterintentions AT andreaslind howthepollscanbebothspotonanddeadwrongusingchoiceblindnesstoshiftpoliticalattitudesandvoterintentions AT bettytarning howthepollscanbebothspotonanddeadwrongusingchoiceblindnesstoshiftpoliticalattitudesandvoterintentions AT petterjohansson howthepollscanbebothspotonanddeadwrongusingchoiceblindnesstoshiftpoliticalattitudesandvoterintentions
_version_	1718422908128198656

How the polls can be both spot on and dead wrong: using choice blindness to shift political attitudes and voter intentions.

Ejemplares similares