Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.

Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymiz...

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Autores principales: Kelly Charniga, Zulma M Cucunubá, Marcela Mercado, Franklyn Prieto, Martha Ospina, Pierre Nouvellet, Christl A Donnelly
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Publicado: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:b4f78e1214ce4de1909030812ba3243b2021-12-02T19:57:35ZSpatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1009174https://doaj.org/article/b4f78e1214ce4de1909030812ba3243b2021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009174https://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014-2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer's rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer's rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5-2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV.Kelly CharnigaZulma M CucunubáMarcela MercadoFranklyn PrietoMartha OspinaPierre NouvelletChristl A DonnellyPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 17, Iss 7, p e1009174 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Biology (General)
QH301-705.5
spellingShingle Biology (General)
QH301-705.5
Kelly Charniga
Zulma M Cucunubá
Marcela Mercado
Franklyn Prieto
Martha Ospina
Pierre Nouvellet
Christl A Donnelly
Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.
description Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014-2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer's rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer's rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5-2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV.
format article
author Kelly Charniga
Zulma M Cucunubá
Marcela Mercado
Franklyn Prieto
Martha Ospina
Pierre Nouvellet
Christl A Donnelly
author_facet Kelly Charniga
Zulma M Cucunubá
Marcela Mercado
Franklyn Prieto
Martha Ospina
Pierre Nouvellet
Christl A Donnelly
author_sort Kelly Charniga
title Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.
title_short Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.
title_full Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.
title_fullStr Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.
title_full_unstemmed Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia.
title_sort spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 zika and chikungunya epidemics in colombia.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/b4f78e1214ce4de1909030812ba3243b
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