Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study

Abstract Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized tha...

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Autores principales:	Kathryn Peebles, John E. Mittler, Steven M. Goodreau, James T. Murphy, Molly C. Reid, Neil Abernethy, Geoffrey S. Gottlieb, Ruanne V. Barnabas, Joshua T. Herbeck
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bce81ff0a8e8480b8372dd88288e5978
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bce81ff0a8e8480b8372dd88288e59782021-12-02T17:04:35ZRisk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study10.1038/s41598-021-85487-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/bce81ff0a8e8480b8372dd88288e59782021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85487-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. To test our hypothesis, we modeled: (a) the impact of risk compensation on rates of HIV adaptation via strain replacement in response to a partially effective vaccine; and (b) the combined impact of risk compensation and viral adaptation on vaccine-mediated epidemic control. We used an agent-based epidemic model that was calibrated to HIV-1 trends in South Africa, and includes demographics, sexual network structure and behavior, and within-host disease dynamics. Our model predicts that risk compensation can increase the rate of HIV viral adaptation in response to a vaccine. In combination, risk compensation and viral adaptation can, under certain scenarios, reverse initial declines in prevalence due to vaccination, and result in HIV prevalence at 15 years equal to or greater than prevalence without a vaccine.Kathryn PeeblesJohn E. MittlerSteven M. GoodreauJames T. MurphyMolly C. ReidNeil AbernethyGeoffrey S. GottliebRuanne V. BarnabasJoshua T. HerbeckNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Kathryn Peebles John E. Mittler Steven M. Goodreau James T. Murphy Molly C. Reid Neil Abernethy Geoffrey S. Gottlieb Ruanne V. Barnabas Joshua T. Herbeck Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study
description	Abstract Pathogen populations can evolve in response to selective pressure from vaccine-induced immune responses. For HIV, models predict that viral adaptation, either via strain replacement or selection on de novo mutation, may rapidly reduce the effectiveness of an HIV vaccine. We hypothesized that behavioral risk compensation after vaccination may accelerate the transmission of vaccine resistant strains, increasing the rate of viral adaptation and leading to a more rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. To test our hypothesis, we modeled: (a) the impact of risk compensation on rates of HIV adaptation via strain replacement in response to a partially effective vaccine; and (b) the combined impact of risk compensation and viral adaptation on vaccine-mediated epidemic control. We used an agent-based epidemic model that was calibrated to HIV-1 trends in South Africa, and includes demographics, sexual network structure and behavior, and within-host disease dynamics. Our model predicts that risk compensation can increase the rate of HIV viral adaptation in response to a vaccine. In combination, risk compensation and viral adaptation can, under certain scenarios, reverse initial declines in prevalence due to vaccination, and result in HIV prevalence at 15 years equal to or greater than prevalence without a vaccine.
format	article
author	Kathryn Peebles John E. Mittler Steven M. Goodreau James T. Murphy Molly C. Reid Neil Abernethy Geoffrey S. Gottlieb Ruanne V. Barnabas Joshua T. Herbeck
author_facet	Kathryn Peebles John E. Mittler Steven M. Goodreau James T. Murphy Molly C. Reid Neil Abernethy Geoffrey S. Gottlieb Ruanne V. Barnabas Joshua T. Herbeck
author_sort	Kathryn Peebles
title	Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study
title_short	Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study
title_full	Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study
title_fullStr	Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study
title_full_unstemmed	Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study
title_sort	risk compensation after hiv-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bce81ff0a8e8480b8372dd88288e5978
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Risk compensation after HIV-1 vaccination may accelerate viral adaptation and reduce cost-effectiveness: a modeling study

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