A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks envi...

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Autores principales: Rong-Hua Wang, Zhen Jin, Quan-Xing Liu, Johan van de Koppel, David Alonso
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/d2f16b8aa2c84852a559994b1fbbc8d9
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