A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks envi...

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Autores principales:	Rong-Hua Wang, Zhen Jin, Quan-Xing Liu, Johan van de Koppel, David Alonso
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d2f16b8aa2c84852a559994b1fbbc8d9
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:d2f16b8aa2c84852a559994b1fbbc8d9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d2f16b8aa2c84852a559994b1fbbc8d92021-11-18T07:27:50ZA simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0028873https://doaj.org/article/d2f16b8aa2c84852a559994b1fbbc8d92012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22363397/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission.Rong-Hua WangZhen JinQuan-Xing LiuJohan van de KoppelDavid AlonsoPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 2, p e28873 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Rong-Hua Wang Zhen Jin Quan-Xing Liu Johan van de Koppel David Alonso A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
description	Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission.
format	article
author	Rong-Hua Wang Zhen Jin Quan-Xing Liu Johan van de Koppel David Alonso
author_facet	Rong-Hua Wang Zhen Jin Quan-Xing Liu Johan van de Koppel David Alonso
author_sort	Rong-Hua Wang
title	A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_short	A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_full	A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_fullStr	A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_full_unstemmed	A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_sort	simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/d2f16b8aa2c84852a559994b1fbbc8d9
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A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.

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