Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives

Abstract Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objecti...

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Main Authors:	Marek Kochańczyk, Tomasz Lipniacki
Format:	article
Language:	EN
Published:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Subjects:	Medicine R Science Q
Online Access:	https://doaj.org/article/e961e290cde44d48ba5034e737cb1acf
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:e961e290cde44d48ba5034e737cb1acf2021-12-02T13:57:25ZPareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives10.1038/s41598-021-81869-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/e961e290cde44d48ba5034e737cb1acf2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81869-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)–(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. Overall, we demonstrated that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep and long-lasting lockdown causing a severe economic downturn.Marek KochańczykTomasz LipniackiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Marek Kochańczyk Tomasz Lipniacki Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives
description	Abstract Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)–(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. Overall, we demonstrated that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep and long-lasting lockdown causing a severe economic downturn.
format	article
author	Marek Kochańczyk Tomasz Lipniacki
author_facet	Marek Kochańczyk Tomasz Lipniacki
author_sort	Marek Kochańczyk
title	Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives
title_short	Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives
title_full	Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives
title_fullStr	Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives
title_full_unstemmed	Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives
title_sort	pareto-based evaluation of national responses to covid-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/e961e290cde44d48ba5034e737cb1acf
work_keys_str_mv	AT marekkochanczyk paretobasedevaluationofnationalresponsestocovid19pandemicshowsthatsavinglivesandprotectingeconomyarenontradeoffobjectives AT tomaszlipniacki paretobasedevaluationofnationalresponsestocovid19pandemicshowsthatsavinglivesandprotectingeconomyarenontradeoffobjectives
_version_	1718392354586492928

Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives

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